Teton County, Wyoming — Q3 2023

Despite facing the highest mortgage interest rates in more than two decades, the Jackson Hole real estate market managed to eke ahead of 2022 levels for the first nine months of 2023. While transactions in Teton County were nearly flat (203 closings through Q3 in 2022 compared to 204 closings this year), overall dollar volume increased 11.8 percent to more than $770M.

The most active segment of the market on the year to date was the $1.5M to $3M swath, where more than one-third of all closings occurred. The lion’s share of the dollar volume activity, however, posted in the upper end of the market (i.e., properties with a listing price of more than $5M); this high-end segment—which tallied only one-fifth of all transactions in Jackson Hole—accounted for more than 50 percent of 2023’s current dollar volume.

The strong performance of the market stands in contradiction for individual property values, where anecdotal evidence suggests values are down 5%-10%—and in some cases more—from 2022. 

During this softening of the Teton County market, Jackson Hole Sotheby’s International Realty has outperformed its peers in the brokerage community by increasing its market share to 48.6% (based on overall sold dollar volume). To put that into perspective, the No. 2 brokerage in the region only enjoys 15.0% of the year-to-date dollar volume in Teton County. 

The brokerage’s success thus far in 2023 was particularly noteworthy in the >$5M price bracket, where Jackson Hole Sotheby’s International Realty agents represented the buyer and/or seller in 48.8% of these higher-end transactions and where the complementing dollar volume market share grew to 60.4%.

Whether you’re looking to buy or sell in this challenging market, let the valley’s most successful sales force help you with your real estate needs in 2023. 

Continue reading “Jackson Hole Real Estate Market Report | Q3 2023”

Star Valley, Wyoming & Idaho — Q2 2023

June, 2023 was an anemic month for the Star Valley real estate market that saw only 27 closings and $8.7M in complementing dollar volume (down 57.8 percent and 79.3 percent respectively compared to June, 2022). And as weak as last month’s sales numbers were, however, they are also on par with the general market performance for the first six months of 2023.

For the first six months of 2022 as the Covid real estate boom started to taper off, Lincoln County saw 277 transactions totaling $142.9M in sales volume. One year later and through Q2 2023, closings fell to 118 (or a 57.4 percent decline) with $52.3M in overall sales volume (or a 63.4 percent drop).

The decline in activity was also matched by a drop in average transaction price. Last year, the average closing price across all property types was $516,005. This year, that stat fell to $442,890 (or a 14.2 percent decline year over year).

Fewer buyers and an increase in inventory may be partially to blame as Star Valley shifts squarely into a “Buyer’s Market.” In July, 2022, 263 properties were actively listed for sale across Lincoln County. This year, 328 properties are on the market (representing a 24.7 percent increase).

While the busy summer season typically drives the Lincoln County real estate market, higher mortgage interest rates may prove to make the second half of 2023 a challenging time for Star Valley.

Continue reading “Star Valley Real Estate Market Report | Q2 2023”

Teton Valley, Idaho—Q2 2023

Mid-way through 2023, it’s challenging to make sense of the Teton Valley real estate market now that the frenetic days of Covid are behind us.

One year ago, activity in Victor, Driggs, Tetonia, and Alta was still riding the wave of the urban exodus driven by the global pandemic. Twelve months later, disparate stats and anecdotal evidence yield a glimpse into the forces currently at work in the market.

An increase in inventory (coupled with fewer buyers) is often cited as the driving force for the Teton Valley market slowdown. Looking more closely at listings currently on the market, however, shows that inventory has actually decreased year-over-year from 394 properties on the market in July, 2022 compared to only 387 listings currently for sale in 2023.

Despite the limited choices for buyers in the summer of 2023, the pace of sales has fallen off from the activity of a year ago. For the first six months of 2022, Teton Valley saw 457 closings resulting in an overall dollar volume of nearly $280M. This year, those totals have slipped to 235 closings (down 48.6%) and a year-to-date dollar volume of $172.4M (down 38.2%).

Both average and median sale prices for homes, condos/townhomes and vacant land are all on par with the first six months of 2022 (suggesting that individual properties are currently holding their value from one year ago). But with fewer buyers on the prowl—and some of whom are impacted by higher mortgage interest rates—it seems the second half of 2023 is going to be murky at best for Teton Valley, Idaho and Alta, Wyoming.  

Continue reading “Teton Valley Real Estate Market Report | Q2 2023”

Teton County, Wyoming — Q2 2023

After a long winter and dreary spring, the Jackson Hole real estate market showed some signs of life in June, posting 33 closings for the month (up 50% from the same month a year ago) and generating more than $118M in dollar volume (up 108.7% from June, 2022). Despite the strong performance from last month, however, year-over-year transactions are still down 13.3% from the first six months of 2022.

Following nearly three years of Covid-fueled real estate activity, buyers and sellers appear to be wrestling with the new normal in the post-pandemic market climate. Higher mortgage interest rates and general economic uncertainty also appear to be keeping the 2023 real estate market in check.

An increase in properties for sale is often cited as another factor in the Teton County market slow down. But in looking more closely at the numbers, in July, 2021–or at arguably the height of the Covid frenzy–151 properties were on the market across all of Jackson Hole. Two years later, that number has grown 52.9 percent to 231 active listings. To put that in perspective, from 2021 when Jackson Hole inventory was at an all-time low, maybe one home in a given neighborhood was on the market. Two years later, now maybe there are two. In other words, inventory is indeed up, but the overall market is still teetering on the edge of whether Teton County can be described as a “seller’s market” or “buyer’s market.”

 What’s not in question is the 23.2% increase for average transaction price for the year to date. The average sale price for the first six months of this year grew to $4.125M (up from $3.35M last year). Average stats, however, can sometimes be skewed by a handful of larger, exotic property sales, which helps to explain the 7.7 percent decline in 2023 median sale price to $2.4M (for a 3-bedroom townhome in East Jackson).

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Star Valley, Wyoming & Idaho — Q1 2023

Following the trends in the overall Jackson Hole region, Star Valley saw a precipitous fall in the first quarter of 2023 compared to one year ago. Transactions fell from 126 sales in the first three months of 2022 to just 50 sales twelve months later (or a 60.3% decline). Sales volume followed suit, dropping 64.4% for the same period (or $65.7M in Q1 2022 vs. $23.4M in Q1 2023).

Despite the average transaction price dropping from $521,252 in Q1 2022 to $467,634 one year later, the median sale price actually jumped from $299,000 (for a 3.78-acre parcel near Alpine) to $370,000 (for a 6-acre parcel in Thayne) year over year.

Some of the disparity in the statistics is found in the upper end of the Star Valley market (or properties with a listing price of more than $1M). For the first three months of 2022, 16 properties sold in Star Valley with a complementing dollar volume of $32.3M (or nearly half of all dollar volume in the market). One year later, this segment of the market only posted 3 sales accounting for $5.3M.

The 23.7% increase in the median sale price for Q1 2023 suggests market demand is still strong heading into the summer season. And while inventory has increased since the height of the Covid frenzy (that is, 141 properties on the market at the end of Q1 2022 vs. 231 active listings this year), the looming busy summer season has the potential to absorb the level of properties currently on the market.

Continue reading “Star Valley Real Estate Market Report | Q1 2023”

Teton Valley, Idaho—Q1 2023

It’s easy to look at the stats from the first three months of 2023 and conclude the Teton Valley, Idaho and Alta, Wyoming real estate market has gone completely off the rails.

Transactions are down 60.2% (or only 96 closings in Q1 this year vs. 241 transactions for the same period in 2022). Sales dollar volume is also off 47.8% (with $70M in closings for the year-to-date compared to $134M in 2022). But a deeper dive into the numbers tells a different tale.

This time last year, the average transaction price across all property types was $556,000. Twelve months later and despite a slow down in activity, the average sale price is up 31.1% to $729,000. The median sale year over year also jumped from $310,000 (for a 4.5-acre parcel of land in Tetonia) to $450,000 (for a 0.68-acre parcel of land zoned multi-family in Driggs).

An increase in properties for sale has put some downward pressure on values. At the height of the Covid-fueled craze in the beginning of 2022, only 166 Teton Valley properties were actively listed for sale in the Teton Board of Realtors MLS. One year later, the total inventory in Victor, Driggs, Tetonia and Alta increased to 281 active listings on the market. If the current pace of transactions continue into spring and summer (which at the moment is about 100 transactions per quarter), the ratio of listings-to-transactions puts Teton Valley ever so slightly into a “buyer’s market” climate.

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Teton County, Wyoming — Q1 2023

Hindsight is 20/20. And in looking at the first quarter of the 2023, the Jackson Hole real estate market bears a striking resemblance to where things stood twelve months ago (and when the pandemic wave started to recede).

A lot has changed in 12 months. Mortgage rates have jumped from high 4% to more than 6%, and failing banks nationally have given rise to additional trepidation.

In addition, real estate for sale in Teton County has nearly doubled from April, 2020 (when 65 listings were on the market) to the end of the first quarter 2023 (where nearly 130 properties are currently listed for sale),

What hasn’t changed in northwestern Wyoming is the price most sellers are willing to ask in the Spring of 2023. And despite the modest uptick in properties currently listed for sale, demand for Jackson Hole real estate has remained strong, which has generally held individual properties value on par with their Covid-fueled values. And like early 2022, the upper-end of the market (that is, properties with a listing price of $5M) carried the day by generating more than half of the sales dollar volume generated in the first three months of 2023.

The median sale in Q1 2022 was a 3-bedroom condo that sold at Snow King for $2.45M (or roughly $1,560/sq.ft.). One year later, the median sale increased slightly (a 3,100 sq.ft. home in the town of Jackson listed for $2.6M). The overall performance of the Jackson Hole real estate fell slightly on transactions (54 this year compared to 59 sales in Q1 2022), and ticked upward on dollar volume (posting $212M in Q1 2023 compared to $202M for the same period in 2022).

With the Jackson Hole Mountain Resort coming off one of its best winters ever, the regional real estate market is poised remain strong heading into summer. Because while market conditions can change quickly, the allure of northwestern Wyoming remains.

Continue reading “Jackson Hole Real Estate Market Report | Q1 2023”