Star Valley, Wyoming & Idaho — Q2 2023

June, 2023 was an anemic month for the Star Valley real estate market that saw only 27 closings and $8.7M in complementing dollar volume (down 57.8 percent and 79.3 percent respectively compared to June, 2022). And as weak as last month’s sales numbers were, however, they are also on par with the general market performance for the first six months of 2023.

For the first six months of 2022 as the Covid real estate boom started to taper off, Lincoln County saw 277 transactions totaling $142.9M in sales volume. One year later and through Q2 2023, closings fell to 118 (or a 57.4 percent decline) with $52.3M in overall sales volume (or a 63.4 percent drop).

The decline in activity was also matched by a drop in average transaction price. Last year, the average closing price across all property types was $516,005. This year, that stat fell to $442,890 (or a 14.2 percent decline year over year).

Fewer buyers and an increase in inventory may be partially to blame as Star Valley shifts squarely into a “Buyer’s Market.” In July, 2022, 263 properties were actively listed for sale across Lincoln County. This year, 328 properties are on the market (representing a 24.7 percent increase).

While the busy summer season typically drives the Lincoln County real estate market, higher mortgage interest rates may prove to make the second half of 2023 a challenging time for Star Valley.

LAND & RANCHES

Through Q2 2022, vacant land sales comprised 58 percent of all sales in Lincoln County. Thus far in 2023, that number has fallen to 47 percent.

The decline in sales is also punctuated by an increase in inventory, further fueling the current Buyer’s Market climate. In July, 2022, 150 vacant parcels of land were listed for sale. One year later, that number has grown to 194 active listings (or a 29.3 percent increase).

The convergence of these two events (that is, a decrease in the pace of sales coupled with more active listings on the market) presents a potential opportunity for would-be buyers.

The average sale price through Q2 2023 also dropped compared to the same period last year. Last year, the average sale price for this segment of the market was just over $340,000. For 2023, the average transaction price for vacant land has fallen to a little more than $305,000.

The median sale price tells a similar story. In 2022, the mid-point land sale in Lincoln County was $165,000 (for a 0.2-acre parcel bordering BLM land in Alpine). One year later, the median sale slipped to just under $135,000 (for a 2-acre mixed-use parcel in Thayne).

CONDOMINIUMS / TOWNHOMES

The Star Valley condo and townhome market was the lone property type that saw a statistical increase in Q2 compared to the same period in 2022. Sales jumped from 4 closings in the first six month of 2022 to 13 transactions for 2023. That said, the majority of the activity in this market segment was the result of a new townhome development in the town of Alpine (Buffalo Sage).

Mirroring a trend in Teton Valley, Idaho (which saw several new townhome developments toward the end of the Covid boom), the Buffalo Sage Townhomes filled a void for entry-level housing in northern Star Valley. The project composed of 2-bedroom, 2-bath floor plans featuring an attached 2-car garage captured 10 of the 13 sales for the first six months of 2023, reflecting the continued strong demand for entry-level housing.

Another new townhome project in Thayne (Mountain Valley Estates) is nearing completion and offers 1,800 sq.ft., 3-bedroom floor plans in the low-to-mid $400,000 range. Given the current climate in the summer of 2023, time will tell to see how this new inventory is received before the snow falls.

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

Lincoln County home sales have been on a roller coaster ride for the last few years. Two years ago, the average sale price for a Star Valley home exceeded $725,000. In 2022, that number grew to nearly $775,000. This year, the average sale price dropped precipitously to $565,000.

Some of this rapid decline may be attributed to higher-end buyers taking refuge on the sidelines while the markets stabilize. General activity in the greater-than-$1M price category helps to support this hypothesis (where in 2022, 33 properties had sold in excess of $1M by the end of Q2 compared to only 6 transactions in 2023).

In looking at the median home sale price for the last 3 years, the mid-point sale in 2021 was $489,000 (for a 4-bedroom home on 7.6 acres in Auburn) before growing to $642,500 in 2022 (for a 3-bedroom home on .4 acres in Star Valley Ranch). So far this year, the median home sale slid to $515,000 (for a 3-bedroom home on .3 acres in Star Valley Ranch).

Inventory has grown slightly in the last 12 months, from 108 active listings in 2022 to 127 listings in 2023. And while a jump in mortgage interest rates has put pressure on this segment of the market, the current market climate seems to be affording buyers an opportunity to purchase at values that haven’t been seen since the early days of the global pandemic.