Teton Valley, Idaho—Q2 2023

Mid-way through 2023, it’s challenging to make sense of the Teton Valley real estate market now that the frenetic days of Covid are behind us.

One year ago, activity in Victor, Driggs, Tetonia, and Alta was still riding the wave of the urban exodus driven by the global pandemic. Twelve months later, disparate stats and anecdotal evidence yield a glimpse into the forces currently at work in the market.

An increase in inventory (coupled with fewer buyers) is often cited as the driving force for the Teton Valley market slowdown. Looking more closely at listings currently on the market, however, shows that inventory has actually decreased year-over-year from 394 properties on the market in July, 2022 compared to only 387 listings currently for sale in 2023.

Despite the limited choices for buyers in the summer of 2023, the pace of sales has fallen off from the activity of a year ago. For the first six months of 2022, Teton Valley saw 457 closings resulting in an overall dollar volume of nearly $280M. This year, those totals have slipped to 235 closings (down 48.6%) and a year-to-date dollar volume of $172.4M (down 38.2%).

Both average and median sale prices for homes, condos/townhomes and vacant land are all on par with the first six months of 2022 (suggesting that individual properties are currently holding their value from one year ago). But with fewer buyers on the prowl—and some of whom are impacted by higher mortgage interest rates—it seems the second half of 2023 is going to be murky at best for Teton Valley, Idaho and Alta, Wyoming.  

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Teton County, Wyoming — Q2 2023

After a long winter and dreary spring, the Jackson Hole real estate market showed some signs of life in June, posting 33 closings for the month (up 50% from the same month a year ago) and generating more than $118M in dollar volume (up 108.7% from June, 2022). Despite the strong performance from last month, however, year-over-year transactions are still down 13.3% from the first six months of 2022.

Following nearly three years of Covid-fueled real estate activity, buyers and sellers appear to be wrestling with the new normal in the post-pandemic market climate. Higher mortgage interest rates and general economic uncertainty also appear to be keeping the 2023 real estate market in check.

An increase in properties for sale is often cited as another factor in the Teton County market slow down. But in looking more closely at the numbers, in July, 2021–or at arguably the height of the Covid frenzy–151 properties were on the market across all of Jackson Hole. Two years later, that number has grown 52.9 percent to 231 active listings. To put that in perspective, from 2021 when Jackson Hole inventory was at an all-time low, maybe one home in a given neighborhood was on the market. Two years later, now maybe there are two. In other words, inventory is indeed up, but the overall market is still teetering on the edge of whether Teton County can be described as a “seller’s market” or “buyer’s market.”

 What’s not in question is the 23.2% increase for average transaction price for the year to date. The average sale price for the first six months of this year grew to $4.125M (up from $3.35M last year). Average stats, however, can sometimes be skewed by a handful of larger, exotic property sales, which helps to explain the 7.7 percent decline in 2023 median sale price to $2.4M (for a 3-bedroom townhome in East Jackson).

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