Teton County, Wyoming — Q2 2023

After a long winter and dreary spring, the Jackson Hole real estate market showed some signs of life in June, posting 33 closings for the month (up 50% from the same month a year ago) and generating more than $118M in dollar volume (up 108.7% from June, 2022). Despite the strong performance from last month, however, year-over-year transactions are still down 13.3% from the first six months of 2022.

Following nearly three years of Covid-fueled real estate activity, buyers and sellers appear to be wrestling with the new normal in the post-pandemic market climate. Higher mortgage interest rates and general economic uncertainty also appear to be keeping the 2023 real estate market in check.

An increase in properties for sale is often cited as another factor in the Teton County market slow down. But in looking more closely at the numbers, in July, 2021–or at arguably the height of the Covid frenzy–151 properties were on the market across all of Jackson Hole. Two years later, that number has grown 52.9 percent to 231 active listings. To put that in perspective, from 2021 when Jackson Hole inventory was at an all-time low, maybe one home in a given neighborhood was on the market. Two years later, now maybe there are two. In other words, inventory is indeed up, but the overall market is still teetering on the edge of whether Teton County can be described as a “seller’s market” or “buyer’s market.”

 What’s not in question is the 23.2% increase for average transaction price for the year to date. The average sale price for the first six months of this year grew to $4.125M (up from $3.35M last year). Average stats, however, can sometimes be skewed by a handful of larger, exotic property sales, which helps to explain the 7.7 percent decline in 2023 median sale price to $2.4M (for a 3-bedroom townhome in East Jackson).

CONDOMINIUMS/TOWNHOMES

Comparatively speaking, the Teton County condo and townhome segment went on a run in Q2 2023, posting 25 closings in the last three months compared to only 15 closings in the first three months of 2023. Some of that increase can be attributed to the success of the new developments of The Glenwood and Arts District West, which accounted for 10 of the 40 transactions so far in 2023.

Even with the absorption of units in these two new projects, active listings in this asset class jumped 27.5 percent in the last twelve months with 50 units currently on the market across the valley. It’s also interesting to note only 25 units were on the market in July, 2021 (representing a 100% increase in active inventory in just two years). Given the pace of condo and townhome sales in 2023, however, this segment of the Jackson Hole market remains relatively stable compared to other property types.

Not surprisingly then, the average sales price in 2023 has jumped 21.6 percent to $2.29M while the complementing median sales price is up 6.25 percent to $1.7M (for a 2-bedroom Golf Creek unit north of the town of Jackson).

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

Single family homes drive the Teton County real estate market. Fifty-seven closings for the first six months of 2023 generated nearly $325M in sale volume, or about 67 percent of the total dollar volume for Jackson Hole so far this year.

While different regions of the valley are experiencing varying levels of interest from buyers, the average year-to-date sales price grew 27.8% for the first half of 2023 (up to $5.66M compared to $4.43M in 2022). The median home sale price slipped slightly $3.43M (for a 4-bedroom, 4,100 sq.ft. home at the base of Snow King) vs. $3.5M for the same period in 2022.

As has been the case for the last few years, the upper end of the housing market is carrying the day. In 2022, 21 homes sold in the first six months accounting for $166.8M. One year later for homes listed for $5M or more, 2023 has seen one fewer sale than last year but the corresponding dollar volume spiked to $224.1M (or a 34.4 percent increase). These 20 home sales represent a fraction of the 117 closings so far this year in Jackson Hole, but dollar volume from these sales account for nearly half of the $482.7M in real estate sold in 2023 across all property types.

Limited inventory in this segment of the market might be part of the reason. Home inventory has remained relatively stable in 2023, increasing slightly from 92 homes on the market in July 2022 to 105 homes for sale in 2023. 

LAND & RANCHES

Despite the finite nature of real estate in Teton County (more than 98% of Jackson Hole is protected in perpetuity as National Park, National Forest or some other conservation easement), vacant land is one segment that–at the moment–is statistically squarely in the Buyer’s Market column.

The 14 transactions in this asset class for the first six months of 2023 stand in contrast to the 74 properties currently offered for sale across Jackson Hole. It should be noted nearly one-third of these active listings are priced at $5M or more, and elevated construction costs in the region have given would-be buyers pause when it comes to purchasing raw land and building a new home in 2023.

While the 14 transactions in 2023 are nipping at the heels of the 17 closings for the first six months of 2022, the vacant land average and median prices mirror the trend for the overall Jackson Hole market. The average sale price for 2023 is up 17.2 percent to $3.44M (fueled in part by two large closings in excess of $10M each), the median vacant land sale price dropped precipitously 33.3% to $1.5M (for a 2.5-acre parcel of land north of town).