Teton Valley, Idaho—Q1 2023

It’s easy to look at the stats from the first three months of 2023 and conclude the Teton Valley, Idaho and Alta, Wyoming real estate market has gone completely off the rails.

Transactions are down 60.2% (or only 96 closings in Q1 this year vs. 241 transactions for the same period in 2022). Sales dollar volume is also off 47.8% (with $70M in closings for the year-to-date compared to $134M in 2022). But a deeper dive into the numbers tells a different tale.

This time last year, the average transaction price across all property types was $556,000. Twelve months later and despite a slow down in activity, the average sale price is up 31.1% to $729,000. The median sale year over year also jumped from $310,000 (for a 4.5-acre parcel of land in Tetonia) to $450,000 (for a 0.68-acre parcel of land zoned multi-family in Driggs).

An increase in properties for sale has put some downward pressure on values. At the height of the Covid-fueled craze in the beginning of 2022, only 166 Teton Valley properties were actively listed for sale in the Teton Board of Realtors MLS. One year later, the total inventory in Victor, Driggs, Tetonia and Alta increased to 281 active listings on the market. If the current pace of transactions continue into spring and summer (which at the moment is about 100 transactions per quarter), the ratio of listings-to-transactions puts Teton Valley ever so slightly into a “buyer’s market” climate.

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Teton County, Wyoming — Q1 2023

Hindsight is 20/20. And in looking at the first quarter of the 2023, the Jackson Hole real estate market bears a striking resemblance to where things stood twelve months ago (and when the pandemic wave started to recede).

A lot has changed in 12 months. Mortgage rates have jumped from high 4% to more than 6%, and failing banks nationally have given rise to additional trepidation.

In addition, real estate for sale in Teton County has nearly doubled from April, 2020 (when 65 listings were on the market) to the end of the first quarter 2023 (where nearly 130 properties are currently listed for sale),

What hasn’t changed in northwestern Wyoming is the price most sellers are willing to ask in the Spring of 2023. And despite the modest uptick in properties currently listed for sale, demand for Jackson Hole real estate has remained strong, which has generally held individual properties value on par with their Covid-fueled values. And like early 2022, the upper-end of the market (that is, properties with a listing price of $5M) carried the day by generating more than half of the sales dollar volume generated in the first three months of 2023.

The median sale in Q1 2022 was a 3-bedroom condo that sold at Snow King for $2.45M (or roughly $1,560/sq.ft.). One year later, the median sale increased slightly (a 3,100 sq.ft. home in the town of Jackson listed for $2.6M). The overall performance of the Jackson Hole real estate fell slightly on transactions (54 this year compared to 59 sales in Q1 2022), and ticked upward on dollar volume (posting $212M in Q1 2023 compared to $202M for the same period in 2022).

With the Jackson Hole Mountain Resort coming off one of its best winters ever, the regional real estate market is poised remain strong heading into summer. Because while market conditions can change quickly, the allure of northwestern Wyoming remains.

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