Star Valley, Wyoming & Idaho — Q3 2023

Faced with the highest mortgage interest rates in more than two decades and also with an increase in properties listed for sale, the 2023 Star Valley real estate market fell precipitously by the end of September compared to 2022. Year-over-year transactions are down 41.4 percent compared to the first nine months of 2022 (that is, 418 closings through Q3 2022 vs. 245 closings in 2023), and the complementing dollar volume is down more than 50 percent ($233M last year vs. $116M in 2023).

In October, 2022, 313 properties were listed for sale in Lincoln County. One year later, that number jumped 22.3 percent to 383 properties for sale. 

One bright note as summer wore down was September’s performance. Fifty-one closings represented the busiest month to date in 2023 for Lincoln County and generated $20.3M in overall dollar volume. 

Another highlight as summer came to close was Jackson Hole Sotheby’s International Realty’s End-of-Summer party at Melvin Brewing. While it was a great excuse to raise a glass together before winter, it was also an opportunity to celebrate the first year of operations at our sales office in Alpine. The newest Jackson Hole Sotheby’s International Realty office is located in the Northstar Building, next to Driftwood Pizza. Stop in for current offerings and the latest information on the Star Valley real estate market.

LAND & RANCHES

Following the trend in both Teton County and Teton Valley, Idaho, vacant land sales in Star Valley fell for the first nine months of 2023. Total transactions dropped 51.7 percent by the end of September compared to Q3 2022 (that is, 111 closings in 2023 versus 230 vacant land sales last year). The overall sold dollar volume saw a similar decline, dropping 65.4 percent in the last twelve months to $26.6M.

Year-to-date sales range from $46,000 (for a lot in the Star Valley Ranch RV Park) to $2.9M for a parcel at the Alpine Airpark. The median sale in that swath was $142,000 (for a half-acre parcel in Alpine), falling 15.9 percent from the same period in 2022 (where the median sale of $169,000 was for a 4-acre parcel in Etna).

While vacant land listings currently on the market are up 22.3 percent in the last twelve months, the average sale price so far in 2023 is down a sharp 31.8 percent to $239,620.

CONDOMINIUMS/TOWNHOMES

Generating 12 of the 16 condo and/or townhome sales so far in 2023, the Buffalo Sage Townhomes in Alpine have driven this segment of the Star Valley market. The new development offering 2-bedroom, 2-bath townhomes with a 2-car garage has generated nearly $5.8M in sales volume and posted a median sale on the year to date of $495,000 (or a metric of $432/sq.ft.).

The highest mortgage interest rates in more than two decades are putting pressure on this segment of the Star Valley market and entry-level buyers. As a possible bellwether for the current market climate, two townhomes in Alpine—both listed for less than $300/sq.ft.—remain on the market.

With limited inventory throughout Lincoln County, this portion of the market seems poised for little change for the remainder of 2023.

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

While the 113 home sales in 2023 only account for 46% of all Star Valley transactions through Q3, the corresponding $77.3M generated from these closings represented two-thirds of the overall dollar volume in Lincoln County.

Sales ranged from $210,000 (for a 2,500 sq.ft. manufactured home on 0.25 acres in Afton) to $6.5M (for a 4-bedroom home on 8.5 acres in the Double L Ranch in Freedom). 

Over the last 12 months, the average home price in Star Valley fell from $842,117 in 2022 to $684,589 (or an 18.7 percent decline) by the end of Q3 2023. The median home sale price has fared slightly better, falling only 14.2 percent from $612,000 in 2022 (for a 4-bedroom, 1,800 sq.ft. home on half of an acre in Etna) to $525,000 in 2023 (for a 5-bedroom, 3,200 sq.ft. home on a third of an acre in Thayne). 

At the beginning of October, 125 homes were on the market across Lincoln County compared to 110 homes offered for sale at the end of Q3 in 2022 (or a 13.6 percent increase). The increase in inventory coupled with the decreasing pace of sales suggests the remainder of 2023 will continue to be a “buyer’s market.”