Teton Valley, Idaho—Q3 2023

With three months left in 2023, it seems doubtful the Teton Valley real estate market will reach the symbolic $500M mark for its year-end dollar volume. Through Q3, year-to-date transactions are down 32 percent and the complementing dollar volume from those sales is down 23.4 percent when compared to the same period in 2022.

While vacant land sales have been the driver for the Teton Valley market in recent years, home sales are carrying the day in 2023. The 137 home sales thus far in 2023 (out of a total 420 closings for all property types on the year to date) generated more than $180M in closed sales volume (or 58.6 percent of the $308M closed in the first nine months of 2023). And while higher mortgage interest rates have diminished the buyer pool in 2023, the upper end of Teton Valley market (that is, properties with a listing price of >$1M) is outperforming the overall market with only an 11.7 percent decline in year-to-date upper-end sales compared to 2022.

215 vacant land sales also generated nearly $80M in sales for the first nine months of 2023. Those sales represent 51.2 percent of all transactions in 2023. For the same period in 2022, vacant land transactions accounted for 59.9 percent of all closings.

Of the areas of Victor, Driggs, Alta and Tetonia, Driggs saw the largest decline in transactions for the last twelve months. Transactions are down 42.5 percent and dollar volume is down 37.8 percent compared to the same period in 2022. Alta has fared the best thus far in 2023, down 20 percent on sales compared to 2022, but up 26 percent on dollar volume.

CONDOMINIUMS/TOWNHOMES

Forty-eight condos or townhomes sold in the first nine months of 2023 ranging in price from $315,882 (for a 3-bedroom, 1-bath, 900-sq.ft. condo in Victor) to $980,000 (for a 3-bedroom, 2-bath condo zoned for short-term rentals at Teton Springs). Year-to-date sales, however, represent a 41.5 percent drop in transactions from the same period in 2022; the complementing dollar volume from these 2023 sales also accounted for a 41.8 percent decline.

More than any other asset class, higher mortgage interest rates have thinned the entry-level buyer pool. A slight increase in inventory currently on the market (34 units are on the market compared to 24 in 2022) due to the completion of new construction in developments like The Ponds, Moraine Square, Lakewood and Stone Peak has created a “buyer’s market” climate given the current pace of sales.

While the average sale price in this category was essentially flat year over year, sales of new units in these same communities during 2023 helped to push the median sale price for a condo or townhome in Teton Valley up 10.2 percent to $579,000 (for a 2-bedroom, 2.5-bath, 1,175-sq.ft. townhome in Moraine Square). 

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

While the 137 homes that sold through Q3 2023 represent a 9.9 percent decline in sales compared to the same period in 2022 (and where the corresponding sold dollar volume also fell 4.2 percent), strong sales in the upper end of the Teton Valley home market managed to push the average sale price up 6.3% to more than $1.3M.

Twelve sales in the private community of Tributary (where the average sale price was more than $3.1M) contributed to the bump in the overall average sale price. That said, the median home sale price only slipped slightly from $950,000 in 2022 (for a newer 3-bedroom, 3-bath, 2,200 sq.ft. home in Victor) to $925,000 (for a 5-bedroom, 3-bath, 3,800 sq.ft. home in Victor).

Home inventory fell precipitously from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023. Last year, 115 homes were listed for sale as of October 1st. In 2023, that number had fallen to 73. And based on the pace of sales for this segment of the market, the limited inventory has pushed the needle back ever so slightly into the “seller’s market” range (and despite the highest mortgage interest rates in more than two decades).

LAND & RANCHES

Through Q3 2023, buyers’ appetite for raw land continues to cool. The 215 parcels that closed in the first nine months of 2023 were a 41.9 percent drop versus the same period in 2022. The corresponding dollar volume from those sales (nearly $80M) was also a 47.4 percent drop year over year.

An increase in inventory isn’t to blame for these declines. Last October, 309 vacant parcels of land were listed for sale. One year later, that number fell to 251 (or an 18.7 percent decrease).

While sale prices ranged from a modest $72,500 (for a 1-acre parcel in Tetonia) to a lofty $3.7M (for more than 600 acres in Tetonia), the median land sale in 2022 was a 2.8-acre parcel in Tetonia that sold for $210,000. This year, the median price has slipped to $195,000 (or 7.1 percent) following the sale of a homesite in Teton Springs. Following suit, the average sale price dropped 9.6 percent in 2023 (down to $370,947).