Teton County, Wyoming — Q3 2022
As the valley turns the corner from summer into autumn, the fleeting warm days of October still harken back to early summer with its crisp mornings and idyllic afternoons.
For the Jackson Hole real estate market, however, there’s been a noticeable shift from early summer to the end of Q3, 2022.
A drop in demand coupled with growing inventory has pushed the valley from a frenzied seller’s market to a buyer’s market where rising interest rates and looming national and global concerns have introduced trepidation for those shopping for real estate in late 2022. Curiously, September was the strongest month on the year to date for Teton County transactions (29 properties sold in the Teton Board of Realtors MLS last month) and the second strongest month for dollar volume (September posted $95.9M in sales, second only to May’s total of $108.7M). The transitioning seasons make it difficult to pinpoint exactly where Jackson Hole is in a shifting market, but recent price reductions by sellers looking to affect a sale prior to the end of 2022 is one logical explanation for September’s spike in activity.
While year-to-date totals for the Jackson Hole market are down sharply from the Covid frenzy of last year, a potential adjustment in the market—and in individual property values—may set up the regional real estate market for a more balanced year in 2023.
CONDOMINIUMS/TOWNHOMES
While year-to-date stats show an increase in the average condo/townhome sale price (up 42.7% to $1.835M from just under $1.3M last year), some of that sharp spike comes from the nature of the sold properties this year (for example, a Teton Village townhome listed for $7.6M recently sold in September for more than $1,800/sq.ft.). Digging deeper into the data suggests a price drop is occurring for this market segment at the end of Q3 2022. While the location and condition of any property will have an impact on value, condos and townhomes in the Town of Jackson are selling for prices at or below the Covid peak of 2021. For example, Love Ridge condos at the Snow King Resort were bumping up against $3M by the end of 2021. More recently, a similar unit sold for $2.85M in September (after being initially offered for sale at $3.4M). At the moment, another Love Ridge remains for sale at $2.895M after 157 days on the market. On the other side of the coin, 17 newly-completed units at The Glenwood just off the Town Square will skew year-end stats further within this market segment as they close before the end of 2022.
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
With nearly half of all year-to-date sales involving an existing residence, home sales define the Jackson Hole real estate market.
By the end of Q1, the median home price in Teton County had broken the $4M barrier. At the end of Q3, however, that value had slipped to $3.55M (for a 3-bedroom, 3,300 sq.ft. home in Melody Ranch). Driven mostly by strong demand for the upper-end of the market (of the 100 home sales so far in 2022, 29 had a listing price of $5M or more), the average home sale price is up 4.6% so far this year to $4.53M.
At the end of September, 2021, only 86 homes were available for sale across Teton County. Twelve months later, inventory in this market segment has grown to 113 homes currently offered for sale (or a 31.4% increase). While the slight increase of an additional 27 homes on market compared to last year may not seem like a noteworthy stat, the existing home inventory for 2022 is put into perspective after taking a closer look at the pace at which homes are selling this year.
At the end of Q3 2021, 179 homes had sold across Teton County. This year, that number has fallen to an even 100 (or, on average, about 11 Jackson Hole homes are selling per month compared to nearly 20 homes per month this time last year).
LAND & RANCHES
Discussion of the Teton County vacant land segment plays like a broken record. In a valley where more than 97% of land is protected as National Park, National Forest or some other conservation holding, the supply of Jackson Hole land will always be finite.
In the last few years, a sharp rise in construction costs—coupled with supply-chain issues for building materials—has caused would-be new homeowners to second guess their willingness to build from the ground up. Recent reductions in lumber costs (in September, the Wall Street Journal reported lumber prices have dropped more than 70 percent from the peak six months ago) may rekindle buyers’ desire to build from scratch.
While 2022 land sales in Teton County are down substantially from last year (through September, 23 vacant parcels of land sold in the valley compared to 83 sales for the same period last year), the average sale price for a vacant parcel of land increased 10% this year to $3.48M. Corresponding inventory is up slightly year-over-year with 69 parcels on the market throughout the valley compared to 54 parcels at the end of Q3 2021.