Teton County, Idaho — Q1 2022
After two years of unprecedented growth, it might be time to rethink Teton Valley’s “Quiet Side of the Tetons” moniker.
While hindered by a shortage of listings for sale, the Teton Valley, Idaho and Alta, Wyoming market saw a 27% decline in transactions for Q1 2022 (214 sales in 2022 vs. 293 sales for the same period last year). At the same time, however, the market managed to outperform the first three months of 2021 in dollar volume by posting $118.2M in sales for Q1 2022 (or a 24.3% increase year over year).
Part of the disparate stats lies in the upper end of the Teton Valley market. While listings greater than $1M only accounted for 11.2% of all transactions (or 24 sales out of a total of 214 in Q1 2022), the greater-than-$1M market segment generated 42.5% of the overall dollar volume for the last three months.
Condo and townhome sales also stood out as a statistical outlier for Q1 2022. Not only were year-over-year transactions up 118.8% (or 35 transactions so far this year vs. 16 sales for the same period last year), but dollar volume in both Victor and Driggs for this market segment was also up substantially from 2021, due in part to the success of the new Moraine Square development in Driggs (and where 15 units sold in Q1 2022).
Vacant land sales, however, continue to define the Teton Valley market. While transactions dipped 36.5% in Q1 (or 134 transactions thus far in 2022 compared to 211 sales last year), the complementing dollar volume was up 10.4% to $47.9M.
LAND & RANCHES
The 134 vacant land transactions for Q1 2022 generated more in sales volume ($47.9M) than all land sales recorded in the 2019 calendar year ($44.1M). Even more noteworthy is since the start of the Covid pandemic, more than 1,000 vacant parcels of land have traded hands in Teton Valley and Alta, Wyoming.
At present, there are only 132 vacant parcels of land for sale in Teton Valley and Alta, Wyoming (ranging in price from $72,900 to $15M).
While the land grab has driven the Idaho market for the last 24 months, lack of inventory once again is the driving force at play and will most likely shape the remainder of 2022.
Individual property values continue to climb. The median land sale for the last 3 months (a 0.78-acre parcel outside of Victor that was listed for $199,000) is up 32.1% over Q1 2021 (a 2.5-acre parcel outside of Tetonia listed for $145,000).
CONDOMINIUMS/TOWNHOMES
Fifteen of the 35 condominium and townhome sales in Q1 2022 occurred in the new Driggs development of Moraine Square. The last unit in this phase of the community is also under contract, and—based on the success of the initial release—subsequent phases are in the works.
The rapid absorption of these new units (where the sale prices were in the low-to-mid $400/sq.ft. range) reinforces the extreme demand in the entry-level regional housing market. At the end of Q1, only four condos or townhomes are on the market, and the opening price point is $635,000 for a 2-bedroom, 1,000-sq.ft. floor plan (or nearly $600/sq.ft.)
Originally built in 2007, the Sage Hen condominiums in Victor also illustrate the level of demand in this market segment. In March, 2021, a 2-bedroom, 1,100 sq.ft. unit sold for $345,000. Twelve months later, a unit with the same floor plan sold in the complex for $525,000 (or a 52.1% increase).
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
“Absorption rate” in real estate is a calculation where the number of homes sold over a period of time is divided by the number of homes currently on the market. A general rule of thumb for the industry is an absorption rate greater than 20% indicates a “Seller’s Market.”
At the end of Q1 2022, the absorption rate for homes in Teton Valley had climbed to 55.2%, with only 29 homes listed for sale. If the climate for home buyers wasn’t challenging enough, only four of the 29 were listed at less than $1M (the average price for the homes on the market is more than $2M).
For Q1 2021, the median home sale was a 3-bedroom, 2,500-sq.ft. home on 2.5-acres in Tetonia that was listed for $710,000. One year later, the median home price in Teton Valley had grown to $829,00 (or a 16.8% increase for a 4-bedroom home on 0.4-acres in Victor).